I wanted to share a transparent and timely update on the Oklahoma real estate market, based on what we are seeing firsthand across luxury homes, new construction, and the broader resale market. Quite simply, this has been the most challenging year I have experienced in my 31 years in real estate.
The market is still moving, but it is doing so with far more discipline, caution, and selectivity than we have seen in many years. Homes are selling, but only when pricing, condition, and location align precisely with buyer expectations.
From January 1 through December 19, 2025, there were 394 homes sold statewide over $1,000,000. Buyers are still active and capable, but those sales are highly concentrated. Homes in prime locations that are updated, move-in ready, and priced correctly are selling. Homes that miss on any of those factors, even slightly, are sitting with little to no activity.
This highlights a critical truth sellers must understand: pricing is the number one factor driving showings, activity, offers, and successful closings.
Comparable sales and appraisals are helpful reference points, but they do not determine value in real time. Comparable sales show where the market has been. Appraisals reflect historical data lenders rely on. Buyers determine value today, and they do so quickly through their actions or lack of action.
The $500,000 to $1,000,000 price range has been especially challenging. Buyers in this segment are extremely sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments. Many homeowners currently hold mortgage rates near 3 percent, and the reality of giving that up for today’s higher rates has caused many people to delay or abandon moving altogether. As a result, urgency in this segment has dropped significantly.
To put this into perspective, there are currently approximately 1,442 homes on the market between $500,000 and $1,000,000 statewide. That is a substantial amount of inventory. Buyers have more choices than they have had in years, and when buyers have options, pricing accuracy becomes critical.
Low showings and minimal activity are not random. They are clear indicators that buyers believe a home is overpriced.
It is essential to watch buyer response, showing activity, and overall market engagement closely and to adjust pricing quickly when the market tells us it is not aligned. And yes, we all know how difficult it has become to get actual feedback from Realtors and buyers these days, which is frustrating for both sellers and agents. In this environment, activity itself becomes the feedback.
Buyers today are payment-focused and value-driven. Homes that are even slightly overpriced are being skipped over entirely. Buyers are not negotiating against optimism. They are waiting for reality.
A recent real-world example underscores this shift. I sold a home just two weeks ago that should have sold for $875,000 based on appraisal and comparable sales. It ultimately sold for $735,000, approximately 16 percent below appraised and supported market value. This is not an isolated situation. This is how buyers are behaving when pricing does not align perfectly with expectations.
We are also seeing a major shift in new luxury home construction. New construction pricing is now routinely well above $400 per square foot and often closer to $475 per square foot or more, depending on location and finishes. This has created a noticeable gap between new construction and resale homes and has added additional pressure to pricing expectations across the board.
Condition matters more than ever. Homes that are even slightly dated, in all price ranges, are trading at noticeably lower price-per-square-foot levels compared to updated or new homes. Buyers today are far less willing to take on projects, renovations, or cosmetic updates.
In the luxury segment, there are currently approximately 336 luxury homes on the market statewide. Even at the highest price points, buyers remain cautious. I am currently representing some of the highest-priced homes in Oklahoma, including one listed at $14,995,000 and another $12,000,000 hip-pocket listing that is not publicly marketed. Pricing discipline matters at every level.
Many sellers still reference tools like Zillow’s Zestimate or prior appraisals. In today’s market, those are not reliable indicators of value. Even homes that received professional appraisals within the last year are often selling well below both prior appraised values and recent comparable sales.
I want to be very clear and transparent. This is not a market where optimism wins. Aggressive, realistic pricing is essential right now, especially in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range. Homes that are positioned correctly have a chance to stand out. Homes priced optimistically are likely to sit, lose momentum, and require larger reductions later.
This becomes even more important as we move into January and February, historically the slowest months of the year. Buyer activity naturally slows after the holidays, weather impacts showings, and many buyers wait until spring. Fewer buyers and more inventory make pricing decisions right now absolutely critical.
Despite how challenging the market has been, homes do sell when strategy aligns with reality. This year, I personally represented the top two residential sales in Oklahoma, one closing at $5,000,000 and another at $4,600,000. Homes can and do sell, but only when pricing, positioning, and expectations match buyer behavior.
The encouraging news is that many leading economists are cautiously predicting 2026 to be modestly better than 2025. While no one can guarantee outcomes, there is reason for careful optimism.
As we look ahead to 2026, the opportunity for sellers will belong to those who enter the new year with clarity, realism, and a pricing strategy based on buyer response, not outdated comps or prior appraisals. Starting the year priced correctly is the single most important decision a seller can make to generate activity, attract offers, and position their home for success in the months ahead.
If you are considering selling in 2026, now is the time to have an honest conversation about pricing, positioning, and strategy so your home enters the new year prepared to compete and win.
As we head into the holidays, thank you for your trust, patience, and for choosing to work with me and The Agency.
“Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways acknowledge Him, and He shall direct your paths.”
Proverbs 3:5–6
Wishing you and your families a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a strong start to the New Year.
Wyatt Poindexter
Managing Partner, The Agency
405-417-5466
[email protected]
www.WyattPoindexter.com
www.TheAgencyRE.com
Correct pricing creates activity. Activity creates offers. And entering 2026 priced right from the start gives your home its strongest possible advantage.
